As I sit here watching the Idaho Vandals struggle through another close game, I can't help but wonder if this season will be different from the last few disappointing campaigns. Having followed coach Gavina's career trajectory from his days with Kia in the PBA to his recent stint with the Taiwan Mustangs, I've noticed a pattern that gives me both concern and hope for this year's Vandals squad. The man has consistently demonstrated an incredible basketball mind, but he's always faced what I call the "revolving door problem" - that constant turnover of players that makes building a sustainable culture nearly impossible.
I remember watching Gavina's Kia teams in the Philippine Basketball Association back in 2017-2018, where he managed to achieve a respectable 42% win percentage despite what felt like weekly roster changes. The man was practically conducting tryouts during the regular season! Yet somehow, he kept those teams competitive through sheer force of will and innovative offensive schemes. Then came his move to the Taiwan Mustangs, where I tracked their performance closely through international basketball databases. They improved their scoring average from 78.3 points per game to 85.6 in his single season there, but again, player movement prevented any real foundation from being established.
Now here we are in Moscow, Idaho, where Gavina faces perhaps his toughest challenge yet. The Vandals finished last season with a disappointing 12-19 record, including a 7-11 conference record that left them near the bottom of the Big Sky standings. But something feels different this time around. For starters, I'm seeing more returning players than in previous seasons - about 60% of the roster consists of athletes who've already bought into Gavina's system. That's crucial because Gavina's offensive philosophy requires specific timing and spatial awareness that takes months, sometimes years, to fully absorb.
What really excites me though is the development of junior point guard Terrence Johnson. I've watched this kid grow from an erratic freshman into a legitimate floor general. Last season he averaged 14.2 points and 5.8 assists while committing just 2.1 turnovers per game - impressive numbers for someone in this system. More importantly, he's become an extension of Gavina on the court, something I haven't seen since Gavina's days with LA Tenorio back in the PBA. That coach-player connection is invaluable when you're trying to establish culture.
The defensive improvements are what could really turn this program around. Last season, the Vandals ranked 287th nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom metrics. Through the first eight games this season, they've jumped to 184th - still not great, but trending in the right direction. I noticed Gavina has implemented more of the defensive schemes he used successfully with Kia, particularly that aggressive 3-2 zone that forces opponents into difficult perimeter shots.
Recruiting has been another area where I've seen significant improvement. Instead of chasing one-and-done talent, Gavina seems to be targeting players who fit his system and are likely to stay multiple seasons. Take freshman forward Marcus Williams - he wasn't heavily recruited, but he possesses exactly the kind of basketball IQ and versatility that Gavina values. I watched him play in high school and knew immediately he was a Gavina-type player - not the most athletic, but incredibly smart with excellent passing instincts for a big man.
The schedule does them no favors though. Looking at their remaining games, I count at least seven against teams that made postseason tournaments last year. That's brutal for any program, let alone one trying to establish itself. But here's where Gavina's experience with constant roster changes might actually help - he's become adept at making in-season adjustments that other coaches might need multiple offseasons to implement.
I'm particularly intrigued by Gavina's use of analytics this season. During a recent conversation with someone in the athletic department, I learned they've hired a dedicated data analyst - a first for the program. They're tracking everything from player movement to shot selection in ways that remind me of modern NBA operations. This analytical approach could help mitigate some of the continuity issues caused by roster turnover.
The real test will come during conference play, where the Vandals have traditionally struggled. Last season they went 3-9 on the road in conference games - a statistic that must improve if they hope to climb the standings. I believe they can do it, but it requires the kind of mental toughness that only comes with stability and shared experience.
What gives me confidence is seeing how Gavina has learned from his previous stops. He's implementing more player development programs, creating stronger bonds between players through team-building activities, and perhaps most importantly, he's secured better financial support from the administration. These might seem like small things, but they're crucial for building the culture he's always wanted.
The upcoming homestand against Eastern Washington and Montana will tell us everything we need to know about this team's potential. Both programs have been consistently strong in recent years, but I think the Vandals can take at least one of those games if they continue their current development trajectory. My prediction? They finish the regular season around 18-13 and make a surprise run in the conference tournament. It might not be the championship season fans are hoping for, but it would represent significant progress - the kind of foundation Gavina has been trying to build his entire coaching career. After watching his journey through multiple leagues and countries, I genuinely believe he's closer than ever to creating something special here in Idaho.