As a long-time observer of college basketball and someone who has followed the UC Berkeley program through its various ups and downs, the question of whether the Golden Bears can claw their way back to the NCAA Tournament this season is one that’s been on my mind since the final buzzer sounded on last year’s disappointing campaign. Let’s be honest, it’s been a tough stretch for Cal fans. The program hasn’t danced since 2016, a seven-year drought that feels like an eternity in Berkeley. But this offseason, something feels different. There’s a buzz, a cautious optimism that I haven’t felt in a while. It reminds me, in a way, of a dynamic I recently read about in another context, involving a coach named Gavina and a player named Abate. The report highlighted Gavina’s "full faith" in Abate to lead a team through a rebuild, with the belief that this process could, against the odds, culminate in a "return to the Final Four." That phrase, that mentality, is precisely what I see budding at Haas Pavilion. It’s not about a Final Four for Cal—let’s be realistic—but it’s about that same core belief: that a period of foundational work can accelerate into a return to national relevance much faster than anyone expects.
The cornerstone of this belief is the unwavering faith head coach Mark Fox has shown in his returning core, particularly in point guard Joel Brown. Last season was brutal, finishing 3-29 overall and a dismal 2-18 in Pac-12 play. Many wrote off the entire roster. But Fox didn’t. He’s bet his tenure on the development of these players, much like Gavina placed his full faith in Abate. Brown, a senior now, has been through the fire. He’s taken his lumps, but down the stretch last year, you started to see flashes of the floor general this team desperately needs. I’m talking about his 15-point, 7-assist game against Oregon State, a glimmer of control in a chaotic season. Fox’s confidence in him isn’t blind; it’s built on those moments. This "full faith" empowers a player. It allows a leader to emerge from a rebuild, not after it. Brown, along with fellow veterans like Lars Thiemann and Jalen Celestine, now carries the identity of a team that knows rock bottom and is solely focused on climbing. That’s a powerful motivator, one you can’t recruit from the transfer portal.
Now, faith alone doesn’t win games. You need talent, and here’s where the potential for a rapid turnaround gets real. The transfer portal additions this year are, in my opinion, the most impactful group Cal has landed in the Fox era. We’re not just talking about role players. We’re talking about proven, high-major contributors. DeJuan Clayton, a grad transfer from Hartford, averaged over 17 points per game last season. He’s a bucket-getter, something Cal sorely lacked. Then there’s Sam Alajiki, a versatile forward from Rice, and ND Okafor, a physical big man from Loyola Chicago. These aren’t projects; they’re plug-and-play veterans. When you combine three players of this caliber with a hungry, experienced core that’s been through the wringer, you have the recipe for a leap. I’ve seen this movie before in college hoops. A team learns hard lessons one year, then adds a few key pieces who change the culture overnight. Suddenly, those close losses—and Cal had a handful of those in conference play last year—start tipping the other way. The win total doesn’t just improve; it can double or even triple.
Let’s look at the path, though. The Pac-12 is in a fascinating state of flux. UCLA is reloading, Arizona is a powerhouse, and USC is always tough. But after that top tier, the league feels more open than it has in years. Oregon has questions, Colorado lost key guys, and Stanford is in a similar rebuild. The middle of the Pac-12 is there for the taking. For Cal to make the NCAA Tournament, they likely need to finish in the top half of the conference, let’s say 6th or better, and post a winning overall record. That means turning Haas Pavilion back into a fortress. I remember the energy in that building during the Montgomery and early Martin years. It was intimidating. Restoring that home-court advantage is non-negotiable. With a more competitive product, I believe the fans will return. They’re desperate for a reason to cheer. A strong non-conference showing, maybe stealing a game in the Cardinal Classic or against Butler, would build crucial momentum and belief before the Pac-12 grind begins.
So, will they return to the NCAA Tournament this season? My heart wants to say yes, but my analyst’s brain preaches caution. The jump from 3 wins to the bubble is astronomically steep. However, the framework for significant progress is undeniably in place. The "full faith" in the returning leaders, mirroring that Gavina-Abate dynamic, provides the stability. The influx of high-quality transfers provides the immediate upgrade in talent. The schedule, while challenging, has opportunities. I’m not ready to pencil them into the bracket just yet, but I am confident in predicting that this will be a dramatically improved, tough-out team that will ruin someone’s season in February. They’ll be playing meaningful games in late February, which is a victory in itself. The return to the tournament might be a year away, but this season is when the foundation laid during those painful losses finally gets built upon. The rebuild, as that reference so aptly put it, has the clear potential to turn into a return. For Cal Basketball, the return to respectability starts now, and from there, the dance floor is the next logical step. Keep an eye on Berkeley; this team is going to surprise a lot of people.